Hypothesis #3772

curcumin TDP-43 ALS

Drug domain: Alzheimer Outcome domain: ALS Score: 0.614 Quality: high

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Provenance trace

Audit trail · curcumin → TDP-43 → ALS

29 source papers, 30 extracted claims, scored by Swanson ABC chain.

Backfilled

Backfilled retroactively from DB state on 2026-05-13. The pipeline_run this row references was created by the backfill script, not by the actual generation orchestrator. Source papers, claims, scoring, and embedding config are recovered; generation-time metadata (exact git commit at gen time, host, exact command) is not recoverable.

1Source papers29
Filter
2Extracted claims30

Each row is one structured triple extracted by deepseek-v4-flash (prompt v1_2026_05_07, source: configured). Confidence is the LLM's self-rating.

  • curcuminbinds_toTDP-43A→B
    "in frontotemporal lobar degeneration brains with TDP-43 inclusions"polarity: negativeconfidence 0.90· extraction run #16· claim #40575
  • TDP-43associated_withALSB→C
    "in pathological aggregates"confidence 0.90· extraction run #15· claim #27501
  • TDP-43associated_withALSB→C
    "in amyotrophic lateral sclerosis brains"confidence 0.90· extraction run #15· claim #27772
  • TDP-43correlates_withALSB→C
    "in microvesicles (MVs) from plasma of sporadic ALS patients compared to healthy controls"confidence 0.80· extraction run #15· claim #27851
  • TDP-43associated_withALSB→C
    "in nerve bundles as diagnostic biomarker"confidence 0.85· extraction run #15· claim #29682
  • TDP-43associated_withALSB→C
    "in tissue-engineered skins derived from ALS patients"confidence 0.70· extraction run #15· claim #30619
  • TDP-43associated_withALSB→C
    "in neuronal cells"confidence 0.95· extraction run #15· claim #30752
  • TDP-43associated_withALSB→C
    "in surviving motor neurons from ALS patients"confidence 0.90· extraction run #15· claim #30797
  • TDP-43associated_withALSB→C
    "in patients with sporadic amyotrophic lateral sclerosis"confidence 0.80· extraction run #15· claim #31451
  • TDP-43causesALSB→C
    "in mutant TDP-43 mice model"confidence 0.85· extraction run #15· claim #32007
  • TDP-43associated_withALSB→C
    "in motor cortex"confidence 0.95· extraction run #15· claim #32407
  • TDP-43associated_withALSB→C
    "in brain tissue"confidence 0.90· extraction run #15· claim #33053
  • TDP-43associated_withALSB→C
    "as major constituent of proteinaceous inclusions"confidence 0.95· extraction run #15· claim #35515
  • TDP-43associated_withALSB→C
    "human"confidence 0.80· extraction run #15· claim #35872
  • TDP-43associated_withALSB→C
    "cerebrospinal fluid"confidence 0.90· extraction run #21· claim #98014
  • TDP-43associated_withALSB→C
    "in ALS and FTLD"confidence 0.90· extraction run #21· claim #99137
  • TDP-43associated_withALSB→C
    "in protein-protein interaction network analysis of classical ALS and ALS+FTD"confidence 0.70· extraction run #21· claim #99608
  • TDP-43associated_withALSB→C
    "in 97% of ALS cases"confidence 0.90· extraction run #21· claim #100211
  • TDP-43associated_withALSB→C
    "initiation and progression of ALS"confidence 0.70· extraction run #21· claim #100212
  • TDP-43associated_withALSB→C
    "human plasma"confidence 0.85· extraction run #21· claim #100239
  • TDP-43associated_withALSB→C
    "in sporadic ALS"confidence 0.85· extraction run #21· claim #101035
  • TDP-43causesALSB→C
    "in sporadic ALS"confidence 0.95· extraction run #21· claim #101095
  • TDP-43associated_withALSB→C
    "in patients with ALS and FTD"confidence 0.60· extraction run #21· claim #101653
  • TDP-43associated_withALSB→C
    "in Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis cases"confidence 0.90· extraction run #21· claim #101702
  • TDP-43associated_withALSB→C
    "in blood of ALS patients compared to healthy controls"polarity: negativeconfidence 0.95· extraction run #21· claim #101940
  • TDP-43associated_withALSB→C
    "methionine alterations"confidence 0.80· extraction run #21· claim #102745
  • TDP-43associated_withALSB→C
    confidence 0.80· extraction run #21· claim #102909
  • TDP-43associated_withALSB→C
    "in 97% of ALS cases"confidence 0.95· extraction run #21· claim #103326
  • TDP-43associated_withALSB→C
    "in upper and lower motor neurons"confidence 0.80· extraction run #21· claim #103437
  • TDP-43associated_withALSB→C
    "amyotrophic lateral sclerosis"confidence 0.90· extraction run #21· claim #103773
3Bridging logicSwanson ABC
Drug
curcumin
binds_to
1 paper
Mediator
TDP-43
associated_with
29 papers
Outcome
ALS
edge_support_log_ab
log(ab + 1) = 0.693
edge_support_log_bc
log(bc + 1) = 3.401
novelty_factor
1.000 (no direct drug→outcome evidence — full novelty)
direct_a_to_c_count
0
4Embedding modelbge-m3

Embeddings are used at the L1 filtering stage to prune off-topic abstracts before claim extraction. They do not directly score the hypothesis.

model
bge-m3
dim
1024
max_length
8192 tokens
similarity_scores
No per-hypothesis cosine scores stored.
5Final scoringhigh · 0.614
method
swanson_abc_log_evidence_with_novelty_penalty
formula
score = min((log(ab+1) + log(bc+1)) * novelty / 10, 1.0); novelty = 1.0 if direct==0 else 0.7 / (direct+1)
raw score
0.4094
outreach score
0.6142
quality tier
high
Pipeline version
9996ffa
Pipeline run
id 4 · uuid eb8b7730…
Pipeline command
scripts/backfill_provenance_v2.py:v2_2026_05_12
Pipeline status
completed
Generated
2026-05-12 21:43:39 UTC
Schema version
1.0
Download full provenance JSON
Score trajectory

How this hypothesis evolved

First captured May 11, 2026, latest May 13, 2026. 3 snapshots.

0.000.200.400.600.800102030 score evidence count May 11, 2026 · score 0.614 · 30 evidence · CT: completed · Lit: reproduces_knownMay 11freezeMay 12, 2026 · score 0.614 · 30 evidence · CT: completed · Lit: reproduces_knownMay 12freezeMay 13, 2026 · score 0.614 · 30 evidence · CT: completed · Lit: reproduces_knownMay 13monthly
Score (left axis) Evidence count (right axis, dashed)