Hypothesis #24018

IFN-beta BDNF MDD

Drug domain: Multiple sclerosis Outcome domain: Depression Score: 0.208 Quality: mid

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Provenance trace

Audit trail · IFN-beta → BDNF → MDD

4 source papers, 5 extracted claims, scored by Swanson ABC chain.

Backfilled

Backfilled retroactively from DB state on 2026-05-13. The pipeline_run this row references was created by the backfill script, not by the actual generation orchestrator. Source papers, claims, scoring, and embedding config are recovered; generation-time metadata (exact git commit at gen time, host, exact command) is not recoverable.

1Source papers4
2Extracted claims5

Each row is one structured triple extracted by deepseek-v4-flash (prompt v1_2026_05_07, source: configured). Confidence is the LLM's self-rating.

  • IFN-betaupregulatesBDNFA→B
    "in relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis patients"polarity: negativeconfidence 0.90· extraction run #25· claim #144128
  • BDNFassociated_withmajor depressive disorderB→C
    "as early risk assessment marker"confidence 0.70· extraction run #18· claim #75381
  • BDNFpredictsMDDB→C
    "ROC analysis in drug-naïve patients with AUC 0.821"confidence 0.80· extraction run #18· claim #75380
  • BDNFpredictsMDDB→C
    "in knee osteoarthritis patients over 3-year follow-up"confidence 0.85· extraction run #24· claim #136588
  • BDNFassociated_withMDDB→C
    "first-episode MDD patients"confidence 0.95· extraction run #24· claim #140115
3Bridging logicSwanson ABC
Drug
IFN-beta
upregulates
1 paper
Mediator
BDNF
predicts
3 papers
Outcome
MDD
edge_support_log_ab
log(ab + 1) = 0.693
edge_support_log_bc
log(bc + 1) = 1.386
novelty_factor
1.000 (no direct drug→outcome evidence — full novelty)
direct_a_to_c_count
0
4Embedding modelbge-m3

Embeddings are used at the L1 filtering stage to prune off-topic abstracts before claim extraction. They do not directly score the hypothesis.

model
bge-m3
dim
1024
max_length
8192 tokens
similarity_scores
No per-hypothesis cosine scores stored.
5Final scoringmid · 0.208
method
swanson_abc_log_evidence_with_novelty_penalty
formula
score = min((log(ab+1) + log(bc+1)) * novelty / 10, 1.0); novelty = 1.0 if direct==0 else 0.7 / (direct+1)
raw score
0.2079
outreach score
0.2079
quality tier
mid
Pipeline version
9996ffa
Pipeline run
id 4 · uuid eb8b7730…
Pipeline command
scripts/backfill_provenance_v2.py:v2_2026_05_12
Pipeline status
completed
Generated
2026-05-12 21:43:40 UTC
Schema version
1.0
Download full provenance JSON
Score trajectory

How this hypothesis evolved

First captured May 11, 2026, latest May 13, 2026. 3 snapshots.

0.000.100.200.3001234 score evidence count May 11, 2026 · score 0.208 · 4 evidence · CT: none · Lit: partial_evidenceMay 11freezeMay 12, 2026 · score 0.208 · 4 evidence · CT: none · Lit: partial_evidenceMay 12freezeMay 13, 2026 · score 0.208 · 4 evidence · CT: none · Lit: partial_evidenceMay 13monthly
Score (left axis) Evidence count (right axis, dashed)