Hypothesis #37832

tofacitinib JAK-STAT pathway Alzheimer's disease

Drug domain: Rheumatoid arthritis Outcome domain: Alzheimer Score: 0.333 Quality: high

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Provenance trace

Audit trail · tofacitinib → JAK-STAT pathway → Alzheimer's disease

14 source papers, 14 extracted claims, scored by Swanson ABC chain.

Backfilled

Backfilled retroactively from DB state on 2026-05-13. The pipeline_run this row references was created by the backfill script, not by the actual generation orchestrator. Source papers, claims, scoring, and embedding config are recovered; generation-time metadata (exact git commit at gen time, host, exact command) is not recoverable.

1Source papers14
Filter
2Extracted claims14

Each row is one structured triple extracted by deepseek-v4-flash (prompt v1_2026_05_07, source: configured). Confidence is the LLM's self-rating.

  • tofacitinibinhibitsJAK-STAT pathwayA→B
    "in refractory cutaneous dermatomyositis"confidence 0.95· extraction run #29· claim #207403
  • tofacitinibsuppressesJAK-STAT pathwayA→B
    "in rheumatoid arthritis patients in vivo"confidence 0.90· extraction run #29· claim #208121
  • TofacitinibinhibitsJAK-STAT pathwayA→B
    "in the treatment of pediatric rheumatic diseases"confidence 0.90· extraction run #29· claim #209567
  • tofacitinibinhibitsJAK-STAT pathwayA→B
    "general"confidence 0.90· extraction run #29· claim #211201
  • tofacitinibinhibitsJAK-STAT pathwayA→B
    "in rosacea patients"confidence 0.90· extraction run #29· claim #220252
  • tofacitinibinhibitsJAK-STAT pathwayA→B
    "in rheumatoid arthritis patients"confidence 0.95· extraction run #29· claim #222750
  • tofacitinibinhibitsJAK-STAT pathwayA→B
    "general mechanism"confidence 0.99· extraction run #29· claim #226845
  • tofacitinibinhibitsJAK-STAT pathwayA→B
    "in treatment of dermatoses"confidence 0.70· extraction run #29· claim #232459
  • TofacitinibinhibitsJAK-STAT pathwayA→B
    "in child-onset systemic lupus erythematosus"confidence 0.90· extraction run #29· claim #232961
  • tofacitinibinhibitsJAK-STAT pathwayA→B
    "in prurigo nodularis"confidence 0.90· extraction run #29· claim #235508
  • tofacitinibinhibitsJAK-STAT pathwayA→B
    "in steroid-refractory immune-related myocarditis patient"confidence 0.90· extraction run #29· claim #241466
  • tofacitinibdownregulatesJAK-STAT pathwayA→B
    "cutaneous granulomatous disorders (literature review)"confidence 0.60· extraction run #29· claim #248484
  • tofacitinibinhibitsJAK-STAT pathwayA→B
    "HLH therapy"confidence 0.80· extraction run #29· claim #261743
  • JAK-STAT pathwaycorrelates_withAlzheimer's diseaseB→C
    "clinical data from six million patients"confidence 0.70· extraction run #16· claim #42173
3Bridging logicSwanson ABC
Drug
tofacitinib
inhibits
13 papers
Mediator
JAK-STAT pathway
correlates_with
1 paper
Outcome
Alzheimer's disease
edge_support_log_ab
log(ab + 1) = 2.639
edge_support_log_bc
log(bc + 1) = 0.693
novelty_factor
1.000 (no direct drug→outcome evidence — full novelty)
direct_a_to_c_count
0
4Embedding modelbge-m3

Embeddings are used at the L1 filtering stage to prune off-topic abstracts before claim extraction. They do not directly score the hypothesis.

model
bge-m3
dim
1024
max_length
8192 tokens
similarity_scores
No per-hypothesis cosine scores stored.
5Final scoringhigh · 0.333
method
swanson_abc_log_evidence_with_novelty_penalty
formula
score = min((log(ab+1) + log(bc+1)) * novelty / 10, 1.0); novelty = 1.0 if direct==0 else 0.7 / (direct+1)
raw score
0.3332
outreach score
0.3332
quality tier
high
Pipeline version
9996ffa
Pipeline run
id 4 · uuid eb8b7730…
Pipeline command
scripts/backfill_provenance_v2.py:v2_2026_05_12
Pipeline status
completed
Generated
2026-05-12 21:43:40 UTC
Schema version
1.0
Download full provenance JSON
Score trajectory

How this hypothesis evolved

First captured May 12, 2026, latest May 13, 2026. 2 snapshots.

0.000.100.200.300.40051015 score evidence count May 12, 2026 · score 0.333 · 14 evidence · CT: completed · Lit: reproduces_knownMay 12freezeMay 13, 2026 · score 0.333 · 14 evidence · CT: completed · Lit: reproduces_knownMay 13monthly
Score (left axis) Evidence count (right axis, dashed)